My latest for PolitiFact! This one isn’t really a fact-check because it’s more like, “people have said things with implications, but whether those implications are correct is complicated.” Specifically, this was written in response to an exchange where a journalist asked the Acting Director of the National Hurricane Center about the connection between climate change and Hurricane Ian, and critics said the NOAA person “shut down” the journalist.
But, does climate change cause hurricanes?
Here’s a good quote:
“The problem is akin to having a grandparent who dies of lung cancer and who had smoked two packs a day," Kerry Emanuel, a climate scientist with a specialty in hurricane physics at MIT, wrote in an email. "You can say that his smoking made his cancer more likely, but some people who never smoked still get lung cancer, and some who smoked heavily lived until well into their 90s.
"Climate change has made intense, highly precipitating storms like Ian more likely.”
I find that’s true with most things. There is never one single cause of anything good or bad - another example is a car crash. Did you crash because you didn’t get enough sleep last night, the other car was going a little too fast to respond in time, the road was just a little wet? Last time you drove under those conditions you were fine, why did you crash this time? Maybe if one of those elements hadn’t been there the crash wouldn’t have happened. Or maybe there would have been another problem, maybe the crash would have been worse. That’s why we try to mitigate risk on multiple levels (seatbelts, speed limits, etc) even though a lack of those things won’t “cause” accidents.
But I should point out, the connection between climate change and hurricanes is quite a bit more complicated than the connection between smoking and lung cancer, at the moment anyway. Read the article for more detail.








